TALKING ABOUT A REVOLUTION

Is France, once again, on the edge of revolution?

IN THE FACE OF massive social unrest that now threatens to topple both his presidency and his government, Emmanuel Macron has thrown a few concessionary crumbs to the Gilet Jaunes (yellow vests). But these concessions are not motivated by any genuine desire by Macron to address the grievances of the protesters but simply to take the steam out of the movement.

Macron intends to continue with his neoliberal agenda and he said as much in his televised address to the nation. Wrapping his address in nationalist sentiment, Macron declared he loved France and that's why, he explained, that he would tackling such issues as unemployment and welfare in 2019. In other words, the ruling class offensive would continue.

While he was urging unity he was insulting the Gilet Jaunes. They know what Macron is about. 'He's the president of the bankers and financiers' a Gilet Juanet told the BBC. 'He's not our president. We want him out.'

We should recall that the so-called 'centrist' Macron captured the presidency not because he was a popular choice but because the alternative was Marie Le Pen of the far right. That was too politically unpalatable for even the French ruling class to contemplate and his political opponents urged their supporters to vote for Macron. He coasted to victory. He was the 'lesser evil' candidate and the consequences of that 'lesser evilism' are on display now. The French people did not vote for austerity and they resent that they are now being provided with no alternative by a upper middle class president from the banking and finance sector.

The Gilet Jaunes have emerged in reaction to that 'lesser evilism'. While the hike in the fuel tax might have sparked the protests , it has since become a broader struggle against the austerity policies of Macron.

The Gilet Jaunes do not have a formal organisational structure and no recognised leadership. This can be interpreted as both a strength and a weakness. Its very fluidity means that a conservative trade union bureaucracy and the mainstream political parties have little chance of capturing the movement and bringing it to heel on the basis of 'national unity'- the siren call of popular front politics.

On the other hand, the lack of organisation (apart from a vast social media network) and a lack of recognised leadership means the Gilet Jaunes could, without organisational cohesion and guidance, simply run out of momentum. In some ways the French uprising has similarities to the Egyptian Uprising of 2011 and it comes as no surprise that the Egyptian government this week banned the wearing of yellow vests, fearing that the French phenomenon now moving into the Netherlands and Belgium could also arrive in Egypt.

But revolutions are a historical fact of life. There were over three dozen revolutions in the twentieth century. In 2018 some commentators on the left are speculating whether France has arrived at May 1968 again. Will revolt, this time, transform into revolution? What we do know is that the Gilet Juares are a work in progress. If they are to make progress there will, by necessity, have to be both ideological and organisational development.