AFTER A DISASTROUS ELECTION RESULT, WILL LABOUR CHANGE DIRECTION?

Only 27 percent of eligible voters turned out for the Tamaki Makaura by election. Nevertheless, Orini Kaipara of Te Pati Maori still handed Labour's Peena Henare a heavy election defeat. But will it be enough to dislodge Labour from its continued loyalty to centrist politics?

FOR WILLIE JACKSON to suggest that Oriini Kaipara's landslide victory in the Tamaki Makaurau by-election was largely a result of Labour's strategic failings is a profound misreading of the result.  And it smacks of someone running away from the burning wreckage at a rapid rate of knots, loudly claiming that the crash had nothing to do with him. 

The problem is not that Labour failed to 'sell' its record; it is that its record is indefensible to those still living in overcrowded homes, on poverty wages, or under the constant threat of benefit sanctions. Maori voters in Tamaki Makaurau have sent a message that they are no longer willing to be taken for granted by a party that talks about transformation but governs as a cautious manager of the status quo. Peena Henare might claim he'll continue to represent working class Maori in Parliament, but this is the same Peena Henare who has loyally supported Labour's neoliberal polices which have had such a deadly impact on Maori. 

For years, Labour has relied on Maori loyalty, while offering minor incremental reforms that leave the structural drivers of inequality untouched. The party’s centrism — its loyalty to capital— has meant that Maori communities have been told to wait for change that never arrives. In practice, this has meant tinkering at the edges of poverty while leaving intact the economic order that entrenches it.  Meantime, multimillionaire Willie Jackson has loudly boasted on more than one occasion that he's not a socialist. Maori should demand to know what he actually stands for.

The economic reality for working-class Maori is stark. Maori unemployment rates remain consistently higher than the national average. Maori are overrepresented in low-wage, insecure work, with many trapped in industries where union coverage is weak and exploitation is rife. Homeownership rates for Maori have collapsed over the past three decades, leaving many at the mercy of an overheated rental market. Health outcomes remain poorer, life expectancy shorter, and incarceration rates disproportionately high.  At the same time, after more than 30 years of reparations, most Maori still live in poverty while tribal business corporates control some $70 billion in assets. That's 'indigenous capitalism', folks.

Even in Tamaki Makaurau — the Maori electorate with the highest average household income — it also has the highest number of people on the jobseeker benefit. This contradiction speaks volumes: wealth in the city is not shared equally, and Maori are still locked out of its prosperity. That experience is something Maori have in common with working class Pakeha and that's something the Te Pati Maori leadership should reflect on.

Labour can treat its election defeat as a result of campaign failings, but it will be deceiving itself. Alternatively, it could confront the truth that continues to stare it in the face; its centrism has failed the very people it claims to champion. In practice, that means embracing policies that redistribute wealth and power. It means committing to large-scale public housing builds, lifting benefit levels to liveable standards, strengthening workers’ rights, and investing in Maori-led solutions to health, education, and economic development. It, importantly, means recognising that Maori inequality is not a side issue to be addressed with targeted programmes, but a structural reality that demands systemic change.  Capitalism is no friend of the working class — Maori or Pakeha.